Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x633a…f4d3
world · 64 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage480d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $85 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $67 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $100 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $40 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $108 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $1 $0 -31%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $45 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $32 +$3 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $31 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $34 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $29 −$2 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $34 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $4 $0 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $4 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $17 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $135 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% $0
other 28% +$1
politics 15% −$4
sports 12% −$7
economics 4% $0
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $33 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $34 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $26 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $34 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $0 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 27 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 0% -9.5%
all 63 -3.6% -12.8% 41% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.51 · official $13.51 (match) · 251 history records