Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x632f…9e6e other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$440 (-7%) realized −$440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%43W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$391
sports 8% −$26
crypto 3% −$59
politics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 13 -55.7% -59.9% 15% 15% -62.7%
all 105 -16.0% -24.0% 41% 39% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 39% -16.9%
10% -31.3% 33% -24.9%
15% -37.9% 30% -32.2%
20% -44.0% 29% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$38 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses43 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage145d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $33 −$31 -94%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $33 +$93 +281%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $15 +$15 +95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $470 −$470 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $247 +$223 +90%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $30 +$51 +170%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $20 +$60 +300%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $96 +$67 +70%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $33 +$63 +194%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $397 −$397 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $413 +$121 +29%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-03-05? Mar 07 $315 +$148 +47%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Mar 07 $312 +$27 +8%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $249 +$33 +13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $237 +$35 +15%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $21 +$39 +185%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-03-06? Mar 06 $92 +$110 +120%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $31 +$67 +217%
Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw? Mar 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $59 −$29 -50%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $38 +$36 +94%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $11 +$27 +250%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $31 +$51 +163%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $27 +$16 +59%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20? Feb 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 20 $77 +$18 +24%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $33 +$52 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 26¢ $29 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $33 17d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 59d
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 66d
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 35¢ $82 69d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-06? BUY Yes 52¢ $58 71d
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-03? SELL Yes 99¢ $126 74d
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 26¢ $33 74d
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 77d
Will France win on 2026-03-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 79d
Will France win on 2026-03-29? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 79d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 81d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 86d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $470 92d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $470 92d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $247 92d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 93d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 93d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 93d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 93d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 93d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? SELL Yes 98¢ $162 93d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $96 93d
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 93d
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $33 93d
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-03-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 95d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $32 98d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 44¢ $32 99d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 41¢ $397 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records