Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x632c…a2eb politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% $0
other 38% $0
sports 10% −$1
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage116d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $80 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $81 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $82 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 06 $82 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $82 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $82 $0 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 04 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 14h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $80 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $80 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 23d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 23d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $80 25d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $80 26d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 29d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 30d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $80 39d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $81 39d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 40d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $81 41d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 47d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 47d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 50d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $81 50d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $82 69d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $82 70d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $82 71d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $82 71d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $82 73d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 74d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $82 82d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $82 82d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $82 86d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 87d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 90d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records