Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6326…6329 sports 1282 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,419 (-5%) realized −$7,430 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%536W / 743L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$1,556est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,018
7 days−$1,566
14 days−$2,245
30 days−$1,845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$10,627
other 9% +$3,127
weather 0% −$23
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -13.1% -21.4% 37% 34% -24.2%
≤30d 354 -4.3% -13.4% 41% 39% -13.1%
≤90d 1194 -16.6% -24.5% 38% 37% -21.9%
all 1279 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 40% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 40% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 37% -22.5%
15% -31.3% 33% -30.0%
20% -38.1% 29% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$95 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized−$7,430
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses536 / 743
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,556
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1279 / 1282
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$113
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $286 $295 +$9 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs ECHO 32¢ 32¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+3%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 36¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 450 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $79 −$77 -97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $300 +$436 +145%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $276 −$270 -98%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $173 +$97 +56%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $83 +$197 +238%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $254 +$17 +7%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 18 $59 +$186 +317%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $231 +$417 +180%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $63 +$104 +165%
MLP St. Petersburg: Utah Black Diamonds vs Los Angeles Mad Drops Jun 18 $4 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $310 −$306 -99%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $39 +$72 +184%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $177 +$320 +180%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $116 −$114 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $214 +$16 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $82 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $261 +$137 +52%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $53 −$11 -20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $471 −$462 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 15 $13 +$31 +238%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $216 +$59 +27%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $129 −$126 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$124 +124%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $257 +$390 +152%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $340 −$334 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $73 +$40 +54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $194 +$63 +33%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $250 −$246 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $124 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $27 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $187 −$125 -67%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $119 −$117 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $263 −$258 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $141 −$138 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $331 −$328 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $437 −$432 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 14 $74 −$72 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $179 +$368 +206%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $147 +$103 +70%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 13 $148 +$62 +42%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $79 −$78 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $291 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 31¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $50 8h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $14 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $8 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $16 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $8 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $8 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $8 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 51¢ $26 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $737 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $187 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $113 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $167 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $109 11h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 74¢ $112 18h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $61 18h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 55¢ $271 19h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $254 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 29¢ $83 20h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 13¢ $3 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.09 · official $411.09 (match) · 3500 history records