Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x6324…e147
sports · 637 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$93 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$153
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses295 / 322
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions23
Markets (closed)617 / 637
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day413.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 23 History 617 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 68¢ 78¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 52¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Nicolas Kicker 52¢ 100¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+91%)
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Filippo Romano 45¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+121%)
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Diego Dedura-Palomero 52¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+92%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Guido Justo 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Laura Samson 48¢ 68¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+44%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 68¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 62¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Matteo Arnaldi 32¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 46¢ 65¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? No 41¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+106%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Kaitlin Quevedo 50¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) New York Yankees 64¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Canada leading at halftime? No 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Canada 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Down 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Tommy Paul 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 12 $7 −$14 -200%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $6 −$4 -62%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $7 −$4 -62%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $14 −$7 -50%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $10 −$4 -39%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $8 −$3 -37%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $5 −$2 -45%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $3 +$3 +112%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $12 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $9 +$4 +42%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $3 −$1 -38%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $1 +$2 +186%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $12 −$3 -27%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $4 +$3 +80%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $1 +$1 +100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $14 +$5 +33%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $1 +$1 +100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $16 +$5 +29%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $8 +$4 +48%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -36%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $4 −$1 -32%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $4 −$2 -43%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Lucie Havlickova vs Jana Kovackova Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Ipek Oz Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$55
other 6% −$17
weather 1% −$9
world 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 27m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $1 27m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $1 27m
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Canada 95¢ $1 27m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $1 27m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 27m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $1 27m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 27m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $1 28m
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $1 31m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 33m
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 88¢ $1 36m
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 44¢ $1 37m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 98¢ $1 42m
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 59¢ $1 45m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $1 45m
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 45¢ $1 47m
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 49¢ $1 47m
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 49¢ $1 48m
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 89¢ $1 49m
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 89¢ $1 49m
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 89¢ $1 49m
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Thiago Cigarran 9¢ $1 1h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 45¢ $1 1h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 56¢ $1 1h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 56¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 57¢ $1 1h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 64¢ $1 1h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 37¢ $1 1h
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 99¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 617 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 39% -12.3%
≤30d 617 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 39% -12.3%
≤90d 617 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 39% -12.3%
all 617 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 39% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover413.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 39% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 33% -20.7%
15% -28.6% 27% -28.4%
20% -35.6% 20% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.28 · official $153.30 (match) · 3500 history records