Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6323…b685 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-24%) realized −$120 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$122
other 13% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +243.5% +210.8% 100% 100% +210.8%
≤30d 2 +365.9% +321.5% 100% 100% +242.4%
≤90d 56 -33.4% -39.8% 11% 11% -33.4%
all 56 -33.4% -39.8% 11% 11% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 11% -33.4%
10% -45.5% 11% -39.7%
15% -50.8% 11% -45.6%
20% -55.6% 11% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$8 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 50
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)56 / 63
History coverage80d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$50 +244%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 28 $3 +$17 +488%
76ers vs. Pacers Apr 09 $16 −$16 -98%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 09 $17 −$17 -98%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 09 $40 −$39 -97%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $11 −$10 -97%
Kings vs. Warriors Apr 08 $11 −$11 -97%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $12 −$12 -97%
Mavericks vs. Clippers Apr 08 $13 −$12 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 06 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pelicans Apr 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 05 $20 −$20 -97%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Grizzlies Apr 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 04 $36 +$159 +442%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Apr 04 $13 −$1 -8%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 04 $6 −$6 -97%
Hornets vs. Nets Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Thunder Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $3 −$2 -71%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 02 $2 +$18 +1150%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Tianjin Pioneers Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ausar Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Hawks Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Suns Mar 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Sichuan Blue Whales vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 30 $3 +$7 +285%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Wizards vs. Warriors Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Nets vs. Lakers Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 17d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 10¢ $6 66d
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Wizards $7 66d
Mavericks vs. Suns BUY Mavericks 10¢ $20 67d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Clippers $5 67d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Clippers $5 67d
Mavericks vs. Suns BUY Mavericks 10¢ $20 67d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 17¢ $0 68d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 17¢ $2 68d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 17¢ $2 68d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 17¢ $2 68d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 17¢ $0 68d
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 10¢ $8 68d
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 10¢ $0 68d
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 10¢ $1 68d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 17¢ $0 68d
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 10¢ $0 68d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 17¢ $3 68d
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 10¢ $1 68d
Kings vs. Warriors BUY Kings 11¢ $11 68d
Mavericks vs. Clippers BUY Mavericks 16¢ $13 68d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers $12 68d
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 10¢ $20 70d
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 10¢ $20 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.35 · official $63.35 (match) · 142 history records