Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6321…86fc politics 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$107 (-0%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%21W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$807per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$12
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$52
other 39% −$55
sports 8% −$6
culture 3% −$3
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -13.7% -21.9% 8% 2% -11.4%
all 116 -1.8% -11.2% 18% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 12% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 12% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 9% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$957) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$19 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$539
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses21 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage126d
Avg bet$807
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $538 $539 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $509 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,787 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,409 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,481 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $823 −$823 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $971 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $957 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $2,531 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $561 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $4,749 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $412 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $869 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,768 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $871 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $743 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,523 −$3 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,478 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,619 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $1,421 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $947 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $487 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $488 3h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $508 5h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $509 6h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $512 28h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $513 30h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $484 47h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $485 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $538 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $845 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $846 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $851 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $853 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $842 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $843 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $858 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $859 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $779 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $780 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $657 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $658 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $880 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $881 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $781 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $782 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $927 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $929 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $723 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $538.58 · official $538.58 (match) · 364 history records