Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6320…7e94 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (771 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$13,341 (+11%) realized +$10,302 · open +$3,039
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%4W / 24L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$3,352per market
Trades / day770.5pace
Fees−$1,069est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$20,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$10,383
sports 44% +$6,585
world 0% −$572
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (771 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -52.6% -57.1% 14% 14% +4.2%
≤30d 28 -52.6% -57.1% 14% 14% +4.2%
≤90d 28 -52.6% -57.1% 14% 14% +4.2%
all 28 -52.6% -57.1% 14% 14% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover770.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.1% 14% +4.2%
10% -61.2% 11% -5.7%
15% ← realistic here -64.9% 11% -14.8%
20% -68.4% 7% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$3,734) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -57% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
34.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,568 vs −$705 · ×10.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20,004
Realized+$10,302
Unrealized+$3,039
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses4 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1,069
Open positions8
Markets (closed)28 / 36
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3,352
Trades / day770.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 71¢ $8,040 $10,650 +$2,610 (+32%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? No 93¢ 100¢ $4,625 $4,971 +$346 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,840 $1,845 +$5 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1,640 $1,580 −$60 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 68¢ $540 $675 +$135 (+25%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $247 $264 +$18 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $3 −$15 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,254 −$4 -0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,230 −$3,230 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34,000 +$15,868 +47%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $750 −$52 -7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $38 −$19 -50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $240 −$187 -78%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $70 −$23 -33%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,745 −$887 -51%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,310 −$2,310 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $6,000 +$6,000 +100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8,607 +$8,393 +98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,734 −$294 -8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,780 −$180 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10,200 $0 -0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $350 −$350 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $572 −$572 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $900 −$900 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5,400 −$5,390 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,007 −$973 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $75 +$12 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $34 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 2m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 3m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $622 9m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $38 9m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $7 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,004.04 · official $20,014.04 (match) · 1632 history records