Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x631b…8e26
crypto · 57 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$13 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses40 / 13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day117.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 4 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 84¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$15
other 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 58% -5.9%
≤30d 53 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 58% -5.9%
≤90d 53 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 58% -5.9%
all 53 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 58% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover117.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 58% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 36% -14.9%
15% -20.1% 21% -23.1%
20% -27.9% 11% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.64 · official $7.64 (match) · 195 history records