Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6319…1f4f other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$948 (+1%) realized +$948 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%33W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$1,207per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$18
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$233
politics 40% −$79
sports 9% +$1,291
world 4% −$56
culture 3% −$5
economics 2% −$5
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -1.8% -11.1% 12% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 93 -10.3% -18.9% 8% 3% -9.2%
all 147 -1.6% -10.9% 22% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 9% -9.0%
10% -19.5% 9% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 9% -25.7%
20% -34.4% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,591) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$7 · ×7.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized+$948
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses33 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,207
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $567 $567 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 23 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $4,719 −$5 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,112 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $852 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $852 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,063 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $315 +$2 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,606 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,488 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,461 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,591 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $787 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $72 +$31 +44%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,377 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,506 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $306 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $385 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,594 −$3 -0%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $52 +$57 +109%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,291 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $4,853 −$5 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $886 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $2,292 −$3 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,499 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $3,055 −$4 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $567 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $532 6h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $533 7h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $584 23h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $584 25h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 25h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $670 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $584 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $585 32h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $696 2d
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $697 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $576 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $576 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $525 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $526 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $758 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $851 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $852 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $851 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $852 8d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,062 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,063 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $315 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 14d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $863 14d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $863 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.01 · official $567.01 (match) · 535 history records