Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

63 0x6318…953d other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$449 (+16%) realized +$386 · open +$63

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%2W / 7L

Drawdown59%max

Avg bet$233per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$92

7 days−$142

14 days−$142

30 days−$385

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-31.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-46.1%	-51.2%	0%	0%	-34.2%
≤30d	6	-67.3%	-70.4%	0%	0%	-54.6%
≤90d	6	-67.3%	-70.4%	0%	0%	-54.6%
all	9	-24.1%	-31.3%	22%	22%	+5.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.3%	22%	+5.2%
10%	-37.9%	22%	-4.9%
15%	-43.9%	22%	-14.1%
20%	-49.4%	22%	-22.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -50% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$413 vs −$69 · ×5.96 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage

Net worth$658

Realized+$386

Unrealized+$63

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses2 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage608d

Avg bet$233

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown59%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	19¢	$224	$265	+$41 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	23¢	23¢	$210	$210	−$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$162	$184	+$22 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$250	−$65	-26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$223	−$27	-12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$52	−$50	-95%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$221	−$217	-98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5	May 30	$24	−$16	-66%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	May 30	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?	Mar 22	$100	−$100	-100%
Trump wins every swing state?	Nov 15	$96	+$223	+233%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$1,123	+$602	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$2	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$215	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$56	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$88	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$185	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$171	27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$107	27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	11¢	$24	5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$88	5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	11¢	$29	5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$248	21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	59¢	$68	28d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	4¢	$8	28d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	31¢	$10	28d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	11¢	$24	28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	33¢	$153	28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$100	97d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$120	97d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$250	97d
Trump wins every swing state?	BUY Yes	30¢	$96	605d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	65¢	$1,123	607d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.26 · official $658.26 (match) · 121 history records