Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

63 0x6316…7f8b other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$590 (-21%) realized −$592 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$467per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-34.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	5	-27.6%	-34.5%	20%	20%	-28.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.5%	20%	-28.7%
10%	-40.7%	20%	-35.5%
15%	-46.5%	20%	-41.8%
20%	-51.7%	20%	-47.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,520 vs −$521 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage

Net worth$134

Realized−$592

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage216d

Avg bet$467

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026	Yes	23¢	23¢	$132	$134	+$2 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?	Apr 01	$165	−$165	-100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	Dec 21	$580	+$1,520	+262%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Dec 20	$200	−$200	-100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	Dec 20	$379	−$379	-100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?	Dec 02	$1,342	−$1,342	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026	BUY Yes	23¢	$34	1h
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026	BUY Yes	23¢	$105	1h
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?	BUY No	7¢	$165	88d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	SELL Demoor	100¢	$525	189d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	SELL Demoor	100¢	$1,050	189d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	SELL Demoor	100¢	$525	189d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	BUY Yes	9¢	$379	191d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	BUY Demoor	28¢	$580	197d
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1	208d
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?	BUY Yes	22¢	$36	215d
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?	BUY Yes	21¢	$300	215d
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?	BUY Yes	19¢	$6	215d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	17¢	$200	216d
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$999	216d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.82 · official $133.82 (match) · 16 history records