Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
63 0x6314…e158 sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$149 (-3%) realized −$148 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%40W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$9
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$181
other 7% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.4% +9.9% 80% 80% -6.6%
≤30d 7 +31.3% +18.8% 86% 86% +2.1%
≤90d 44 +4.4% -5.6% 75% 55% -7.4%
all 56 -3.4% -12.6% 71% 50% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -12.9%
10% -21.0% 30% -21.2%
15% -28.6% 23% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$73 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses40 / 16
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage155d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$73 -72%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 +$39 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 +$12 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$13 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $68 +$7 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $34 +$34 +101%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $135 −$134 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $102 +$192 +188%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 18 $93 +$35 +38%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $102 +$23 +22%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $62 +$34 +54%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $204 +$70 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $144 +$60 +41%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $59 −$59 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $190 +$14 +7%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $175 +$15 +8%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 14 $160 +$15 +10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 14 $146 +$14 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $130 +$13 +10%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $101 +$20 +20%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 13 $50 +$5 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $98 +$11 +11%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $50 +$11 +23%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 12 $20 +$21 +103%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $64 +$2 +4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $60 +$4 +6%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $55 +$3 +6%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 10 $20 +$12 +59%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $101 +$90 +89%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 10 $34 +$6 +17%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $100 +$16 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 10 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 10 $51 +$51 +101%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 09 $50 +$12 +24%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 09 $101 +$51 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $44 −$44 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $40 +$5 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Apr 16 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 21 $127 +$7 +5%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $104 +$23 +22%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $100 +$4 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 19 $99 +$1 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Mar 19 $158 −$158 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $69 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $56 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $43 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $68 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $34 10d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 78¢ $135 32d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 15¢ $10 33d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif BUY HANJIN BRION 34¢ $102 34d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 47¢ $124 35d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 72¢ $93 35d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $102 35d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Team WE 33¢ $102 36d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL BNK FEARX 100¢ $95 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 70¢ $10 36d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 64¢ $62 36d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $204 37d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $204 37d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $144 37d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 58¢ $20 38d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $39 38d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $204 38d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 93¢ $190 38d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LNG Esports 100¢ $190 38d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LNG Esports 92¢ $175 38d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $175 38d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 91¢ $160 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.55 · official $33.55 (match) · 115 history records