Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
63 0x6314…3515 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$455 (+37%) realized +$1,165 · open −$710
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$410per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +63.5% +47.9% 50% 50% +82.1%
≤30d 2 +63.5% +47.9% 50% 50% +82.1%
≤90d 2 +63.5% +47.9% 50% 50% +82.1%
all 2 +63.5% +47.9% 50% 50% +82.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.9% 50% +82.1%
10% +33.8% 50% +64.7%
15% +20.8% 50% +48.8%
20% +9.0% 50% +34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$454 vs −$6 · ×72.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×72.26 per $1 lost it wins $72.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$1,165
Unrealized−$710
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$410
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 4¢ $775 $65 −$710 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 −$6 -6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $341 +$454 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $98 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 42¢ $95 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $290 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $99 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $96 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $300 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $795 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $97 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $203 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $41 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.16 · official $74.47 · 14 history records