Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6312…f94e sports 673 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$322 (-1%) realized +$580 · open −$902
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%263W / 338L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2,851
sports 21% −$415
other 15% +$798
politics 9% −$49
crypto 6% +$583
finance 4% −$316
tech 2% −$93
economics 1% −$31
culture 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +28.9% +16.6% 47% 43% +15.8%
≤30d 152 +36.2% +23.2% 41% 36% -5.5%
≤90d 399 +8.4% -2.0% 41% 36% -1.8%
all 601 +4.6% -5.4% 44% 39% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 39% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 32% -10.3%
15% -22.7% 26% -19.0%
20% -30.3% 21% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$40 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$4,868
Realized+$580
Unrealized−$902
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses263 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions86
Markets (closed)601 / 673
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 601 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $381 $604 +$223 (+59%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $324 $412 +$88 (+27%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $293 $289 −$4 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $237 $285 +$48 (+20%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $318 $282 −$36 (-11%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $276 $203 −$73 (-26%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $183 $171 −$12 (-7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $277 $143 −$134 (-48%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 68¢ 69¢ $136 $138 +$2 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $122 $118 −$4 (-3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $104 $106 +$3 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $380 $102 −$278 (-73%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $157 $99 −$58 (-37%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $109 $93 −$16 (-15%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $103 $91 −$12 (-12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $90 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $113 $87 −$26 (-23%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $87 $81 −$7 (-8%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $81 $79 −$1 (-2%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 74¢ 72¢ $74 $72 −$1 (-2%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 67¢ 68¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $105 $67 −$37 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $107 −$7 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 +$17 +95%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$8 -54%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 +$373 +1115%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $150 −$60 -40%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $606 −$269 -44%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 15 $22 +$17 +77%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $39 +$11 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $128 +$18 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $75 +$182 +242%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $506 +$485 +96%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $39 +$11 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $403 +$18 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $414 +$267 +65%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $196 −$22 -11%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $154 +$443 +288%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $17 +$82 +484%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vivian Wilson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $30 −$28 -93%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $325 −$80 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $280 −$50 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $70 +$26 +37%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $120 −$95 -79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $79 +$20 +25%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $32 +$9 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $446 +$183 +41%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $18 +$57 +314%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $186 +$62 +33%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $72 +$17 +24%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $263 +$33 +13%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 07 $112 +$2 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $130 +$60 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 20¢ $40 11m
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $28 58m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 67¢ $91 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $90 4h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $35 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $37 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $105 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 6h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $32 7h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 67¢ $30 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $36 8h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 67¢ $20 10h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 67¢ $2 10h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 12h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 13h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 13h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 67¢ $15 13h
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $52 14h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 14h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 14h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $53 14h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 15h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $136 15h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,867.91 · official $4,869.67 (match) · 3500 history records