Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x630f…15ae
other · 133 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$1,298 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,297 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,014
Realized−$1,297
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
Avg bet$758
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 132 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$14
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,015 $1,014 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $994 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,978 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,874 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,981 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,081 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $277 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $511 +$1 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $310 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,129 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $5,711 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,608 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,876 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,187 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $3,482 −$4 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,997 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $1,190 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,195 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $3,108 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,204 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,980 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,594 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,205 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,465 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,227 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $906 −$906 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $736 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $723 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $859 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$880
politics 30% −$32
sports 12% −$345
culture 5% −$6
world 2% −$36
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,015 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $904 2h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $906 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $993 21h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $994 22h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 24h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $816 26h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,018 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $955 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $956 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $838 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $839 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $939 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $940 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,080 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,081 10d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $309 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $310 12d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $410 15d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $411 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $410 16d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $411 16d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $277 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $609 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $610 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $550 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $551 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -14.5% -22.6% 8% 4% -11.1%
all 132 -5.6% -14.6% 16% 8% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 8% -10.7%
10% -22.7% 8% -19.2%
15% -30.2% 5% -27.1%
20% -37.1% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,014.36 · official $1,014.36 (match) · 415 history records