Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6307…a346 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$269 (-4%) realized −$269 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%29W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$78
other 13% −$146
world 9% −$163
crypto 2% −$120
economics 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +21.3% +9.7% 64% 61% -10.6%
≤30d 44 +21.3% +9.7% 64% 61% -10.6%
≤90d 44 +21.3% +9.7% 64% 61% -10.6%
all 54 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 52% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 52% -15.1%
10% -13.2% 43% -23.2%
15% -21.5% 33% -30.7%
20% -29.2% 33% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$58 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage146d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $502 +$87 +17%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $445 +$93 +21%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,105 −$272 -25%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $703 −$11 -2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$12 -12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $402 +$97 +24%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $31 +$30 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$91 +89%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $302 +$92 +30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $302 +$66 +22%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $302 +$82 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$22 +27%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $218 −$215 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$36 +234%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$47 +77%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$31 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$14 -69%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$41 +203%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$21 +203%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +235%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 +$9 +117%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +122%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $228 −$228 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$114 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 1PM ET Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 2PM ET Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Powell say "Median" during January press conference? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Powell say "Not our job" during January press conference? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $589 8m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 18m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $539 20m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $445 35m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 55¢ $446 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $499 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 43¢ $387 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $606 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 93¢ $605 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $601 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $90 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $87 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $402 5h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $20 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $60 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $192 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $394 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $302 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 92¢ $368 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $302 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $384 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $302 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $201 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records