Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6305…5a37 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$2
crypto 25% −$3
other 10% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.9% -7.8% 56% 56% -7.4%
≤30d 18 +1.9% -7.8% 56% 56% -7.4%
≤90d 18 +1.9% -7.8% 56% 56% -7.4%
all 24 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 42% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 42% -6.9%
10% -15.9% 42% -15.8%
15% -24.0% 25% -23.9%
20% -31.4% 17% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage224d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 60¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$4 +28%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $9 −$6 -71%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 6? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +185%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $8 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 4? Nov 04 $3 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 4? Nov 04 $3 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 4? Nov 04 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $13 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $10 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $5 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $19 21h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 21¢ $3 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $9 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $15 31h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $12 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $7 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $4 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $2 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 6? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 221d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 5? SELL No 100¢ $4 222d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 5? BUY No 99¢ $4 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.87 · official $4.88 (match) · 49 history records