Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6303…9556 sports 387 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,617 (-4%) realized −$5,617 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%185W / 200L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$2,175est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$720
7 days−$1,664
14 days−$3,341
30 days−$12,570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,841
other 1% −$798
weather 0% −$301
crypto 0% +$87
world 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -10.7% -19.2% 46% 39% -17.4%
≤30d 330 -7.3% -16.1% 47% 43% -18.7%
≤90d 385 -5.4% -14.4% 48% 45% -14.1%
all 385 -5.4% -14.4% 48% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 45% -14.1%
10% -22.6% 38% -22.3%
15% -30.1% 29% -29.8%
20% -36.9% 18% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$225 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$5,617
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses185 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,175
Open positions1
Markets (closed)385 / 387
History coverage64d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $139 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $102 −$95 -94%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 −$16 -27%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$13 -26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $31 −$27 -88%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $203 −$154 -76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $31 −$23 -76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$14 +68%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$104 -68%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$19 +63%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $183 −$90 -50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $122 −$103 -84%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$16 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $67 +$8 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$3 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 −$18 -90%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $144 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $61 +$39 +64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$18 -88%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$44 -87%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$46 -90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$21 +41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$37 +36%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $91 −$84 -92%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $101 −$59 -59%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $101 +$35 +34%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $152 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $122 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $88 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 38¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $37 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $50 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 9¢ $7 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $31 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $152 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $51 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 37¢ $10 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Under 60¢ $4 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 60¢ $34 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $45 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $31 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 35¢ $20 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.98 · official $4.98 (match) · 974 history records