Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6302…a189 crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%81W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +5.0% -5.0% 72% 60% -14.5%
≤30d 122 +0.3% -9.2% 66% 53% -15.6%
≤90d 122 +0.3% -9.2% 66% 53% -15.6%
all 122 +0.3% -9.2% 66% 53% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 53% -15.6%
10% -17.9% 46% -23.7%
15% -25.8% 34% -31.1%
20% -33.1% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses81 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage16d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$31 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$7 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records