Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62ff…6b66 other 596 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,434 (-7%) realized −$2,441 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%166W / 426L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days+$389
14 days−$43
30 days−$1,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$2,912
sports 40% +$178
world 1% −$35
crypto 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +19.7% +8.3% 34% 34% +8.8%
≤30d 215 -9.8% -18.4% 30% 28% -17.6%
≤90d 587 -17.3% -25.2% 28% 27% -16.2%
all 592 -18.0% -25.8% 28% 27% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 27% -16.5%
10% -32.9% 27% -24.5%
15% -39.4% 26% -31.8%
20% -45.3% 24% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$47 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$2,441
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses166 / 426
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions5
Markets (closed)592 / 596
History coverage129d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 592 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 20¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+0%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 393 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $172 +$126 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $211 −$157 -74%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$170 +551%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$86 +57%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $14 −$3 -18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$121 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $208 −$167 -80%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $123 −$103 -84%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 −$16 -28%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $43 +$60 +141%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +340%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$100 +98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $93 −$91 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $176 +$93 +53%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 −$107 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $133 +$327 +246%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 −$67 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$110 +431%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$227 +442%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $10 +$17 +162%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +510%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $122 −$55 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $52 +$12 +22%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$85 +140%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$25 -48%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $56 −$55 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $47 −$46 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$282 +550%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 1m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 33m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $32 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $200 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 23h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 16¢ $4 23h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Toronto Tempo 24¢ $11 23h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 21¢ $10 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 5¢ $5 44h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 5¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.46 · official $120.46 (match) · 1042 history records