Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62ff…5058 sports 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,131 (-6%) realized −$6,131 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%88W / 115L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$980est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$422
7 days+$422
14 days+$422
30 days+$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$8,996
other 20% +$2,814
world 2% −$146
politics 1% +$156
finance 0% −$39
crypto 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +55.4% +40.6% 80% 80% +41.1%
≤30d 5 +55.4% +40.6% 80% 80% +41.1%
≤90d 155 +8.3% -2.1% 45% 44% -12.4%
all 203 +2.3% -7.5% 43% 42% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 42% -13.6%
10% -16.3% 37% -21.8%
15% -24.4% 33% -29.4%
20% -31.8% 26% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$620) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$313 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses88 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$980
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage156d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$166 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $167 +$108 +65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $182 +$123 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $151 −$32 -21%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $6,292 −$3,402 -54%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $629 −$620 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $281 +$614 +219%
Vålerenga Fotball vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 3.5 May 03 $285 +$322 +113%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 May 02 $559 −$550 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $876 −$866 -99%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 01 $11 −$11 -97%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Blockx (+1.5) May 01 $278 +$195 +70%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $662 −$650 -98%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 May 01 $169 −$96 -57%
Viking FK vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 3.5 May 01 $508 −$500 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Fils May 01 $94 +$25 +27%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $67 −$65 -97%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $252 +$496 +197%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $357 +$808 +226%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $259 +$750 +289%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) Apr 30 $203 +$222 +109%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $862 −$701 -81%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 30 $357 −$46 -13%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $357 −$350 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $490 −$480 -98%
Tromsø IL vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $304 +$172 +57%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Apr 29 $505 +$254 +50%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $767 −$760 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $648 +$436 +67%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 28 $204 −$200 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $2,387 +$2,432 +102%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $62 +$438 +711%
Lillestrøm SK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $487 −$308 -63%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $653 −$639 -98%
Molde FK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $410 +$243 +59%
Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $250 −$166 -66%
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $826 −$235 -28%
Inter Miami CF vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $1,386 −$1,365 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 25 $1,010 −$77 -8%
Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $700 −$689 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $1,943 −$1,920 -99%
Fredrikstad FK vs. Viking FK: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $550 +$177 +32%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $150 −$146 -97%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 −$97 -98%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $80 +$242 +303%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $525 −$518 -99%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 25 $255 −$22 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $319 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 6h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $167 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $305 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $182 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $119 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $151 30h
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $479 42d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 31¢ $71 42d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $629 42d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 30¢ $695 42d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,255 44d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $895 44d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 40¢ $153 44d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 24¢ $128 44d
Vålerenga Fotball vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $607 44d
Vålerenga Fotball vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 44d
Vålerenga Fotball vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $254 44d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 31¢ $286 44d
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $559 45d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 31¢ $597 45d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $226 46d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 70¢ $303 46d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 91¢ $140 46d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 64¢ $101 46d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 40¢ $332 46d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $92 46d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $408 46d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $88 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records