Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62fb…ce38 world 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% $0
other 18% +$5
politics 16% $0
culture 12% −$2
finance 4% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 45% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 45% 0% -9.3%
all 29 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage285d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $9 −$1 -15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on Oc Oct 27 $31 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21? Oct 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 27 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 26 $28 $0 -1%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 3m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $29 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $29 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $13 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $17 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $3 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $26 45h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $12 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $5 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $4 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $4 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $4 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $29 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $29 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $33 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $33 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $30 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.94 · official $2.94 (match) · 111 history records