Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62fb…4f62 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$246 (+1%) realized +$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%47W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$150
finance 8% +$28
world 7% +$14
economics 6% +$6
tech 4% +$20
politics 2% −$3
sports 1% +$19
other 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 50 +0.3% -9.2% 94% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -8.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$679) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×18.58 per $1 lost it wins $18.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$823
Realized+$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses47 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage262d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $436 $436 −$1 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $181 $181 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $106 $107 +$0 (+0%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $819 +$4 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $810 +$9 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 08 $680 +$17 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 28 $107 +$7 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 07 $679 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 29 $548 +$3 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Mar 26 $126 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $120k first? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 25 $650 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 15 $651 −$1 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Mar 08 $123 +$3 +3%
Thionville: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Mar 07 $110 +$12 +11%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $650 +$1 +0%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 04 $103 +$7 +6%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 04 $497 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $750 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 25 $238 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 12 $491 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 28 $496 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $493 +$3 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 03 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2026? Dec 31 $516 +$6 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 30 $117 +$4 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 27 $74 +$5 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $438 +$78 +18%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 29 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Nov 29 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 21 $410 +$28 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $124,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $579 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Nov 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 31 $570 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 25? Oct 26 $599 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 25 $583 +$6 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 13-19? Oct 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.40 on October 15? Oct 16 $1,462 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? Oct 15 $1,470 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on October 13? Oct 14 $1,468 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12? Oct 13 $1,465 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12? Oct 12 $172 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 12? Oct 12 $1,290 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on October 11? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on October 11? Oct 12 $1,267 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? Oct 11 $1,283 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $128,000 on October 9? Oct 10 $1,279 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $126,000 on October 8? Oct 09 $171 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 08 $160 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 6? Oct 08 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $436 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $181 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $131 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $123 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $131 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $90 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $106 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 13d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $96 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $819 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $192 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $185 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $425 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $810 47d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $104 56d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $9 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 98¢ $680 77d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $679 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $552 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $127 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $548 90d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $107 90d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $351 90d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $215 93d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $822.77 · official $822.77 (match) · 165 history records