Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x62fa…aaef
weather · 205 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$69
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses104 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions46
Markets (closed)159 / 205
Avg bet$1
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 46 History 159 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 61¢ 81¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? No 55¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? No 57¢ 95¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? No 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? No 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? No 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? No 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? No 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? No 57¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? No 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? No 66¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? No 70¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? No 71¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? No 72¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? No 73¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 66¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? No 66¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 55¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? No 64¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 67¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 71¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? No 75¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? No 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? No 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +43%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% −$11
sports 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 58¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 71¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 57¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 58¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 67¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -5.8% -14.8% 65% 65% -14.2%
≤30d 159 -5.8% -14.8% 65% 65% -14.2%
≤90d 159 -5.8% -14.8% 65% 65% -14.2%
all 159 -5.8% -14.8% 65% 65% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 65% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 60% -22.5%
15% -30.4% 43% -29.9%
20% -37.2% 25% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.29 · official $69.29 (match) · 309 history records