Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62fa…0c8a weather 800 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$110 (+0%) realized +$109 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%756W / 38L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day91.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$178
14 days+$199
30 days−$868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$414
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +1.8% -7.9% 99% 1% -7.6%
≤30d 619 -1.1% -10.5% 95% 2% -11.6%
≤90d 794 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 2% -10.2%
all 794 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 2% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$43 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses756 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)794 / 800
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day91.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? No 95¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $87 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $63 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $117 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $154 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $116 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $266 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 16m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $48 16m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $38 26m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $32 30m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $66 30m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $18 32m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $9 45m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $19 45m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $45 45m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $21 46m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 47m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $33 49m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $80 56m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.57 · official $176.57 (match) · 3500 history records