Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62f9…ae42 sports 925 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,058 (-5%) realized −$4,058 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%586W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$399est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$171
14 days−$1,275
30 days−$2,729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,794
crypto 2% +$359
other 2% +$13
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.3% -16.2% 56% 22% -23.9%
≤30d 260 -9.7% -18.3% 60% 42% -18.6%
≤90d 463 -4.2% -13.3% 66% 41% -15.4%
all 924 -2.9% -12.2% 63% 45% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 45% -14.8%
10% -20.6% 33% -23.0%
15% -28.3% 23% -30.4%
20% -35.3% 15% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$54 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,058
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses586 / 338
Est. fees paid−$399
Open positions1
Markets (closed)924 / 925
History coverage157d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 924 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner T1 74¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $179 −$177 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $228 −$24 -10%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena Jun 22 $154 +$9 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien Jun 22 $143 +$10 +7%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $21 +$13 +63%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $135 −$5 -4%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $162 +$8 +5%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 22 $24 −$11 -45%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $73 −$73 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $64 +$8 +13%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $220 −$182 -83%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $87 +$97 +111%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 16 $344 −$344 -100%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $393 −$393 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $27 +$23 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $247 +$129 +52%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $345 −$58 -17%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $200 +$8 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $96 +$42 +44%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $58 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $553 −$35 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $63 −$44 -70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13 +$13 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $125 +$34 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $43 +$12 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$9 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $29 +$19 +65%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $57 +$12 +21%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes Jun 13 $240 −$160 -67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $28 +$14 +50%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $29 +$13 +44%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $16 +$7 +41%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 12 $139 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $127 −$85 -67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $131 −$36 -28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $363 −$326 -90%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Jun 12 $30 +$4 +14%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $30 +$4 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $72 +$19 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $80 14m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 74¢ $60 54m
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 62¢ $179 6d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin SELL David Goffin 13¢ $9 6d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 36¢ $28 6d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin SELL Andrea Guerrieri 73¢ $194 6d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY Andrea Guerrieri 74¢ $200 6d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena SELL Timofey Skatov 100¢ $163 6d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena BUY Timofey Skatov 94¢ $154 6d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien BUY Yunchaokete Bu 93¢ $143 6d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 99¢ $35 6d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 60¢ $21 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $130 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $135 6d
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 44¢ $36 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Execration 100¢ $171 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 95¢ $9 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 95¢ $28 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 95¢ $21 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 95¢ $5 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 95¢ $90 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 95¢ $10 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 85¢ $73 8d
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Bia Mesquita 100¢ $73 8d
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 88¢ $64 8d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 37¢ $13 10d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 67¢ $14 10d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 67¢ $5 10d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 67¢ $4 10d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 64¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 2613 history records