Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62f8…2928 other 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,317 (+6%) realized +$2,328 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%31W / 175L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$557
7 days+$445
14 days+$3,415
30 days−$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$7,145
sports 20% −$2,093
other 16% −$3,630
crypto 0% +$885
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +59.7% +44.5% 22% 22% -2.5%
≤30d 70 +6.2% -3.9% 17% 17% -12.3%
≤90d 158 -14.0% -22.1% 13% 12% -2.1%
all 206 -12.9% -21.2% 15% 15% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 15% -2.2%
10% -28.8% 14% -11.6%
15% -35.6% 14% -20.1%
20% -42.0% 13% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$749 vs −$120 · ×6.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$2,328
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses31 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions2
Markets (closed)206 / 209
History coverage128d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $63 $45 −$18 (-28%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $579 −$579 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 18 $1,178 −$342 -29%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $243 +$332 +137%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$235 +1565%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $154 −$130 -84%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$126 +353%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$9 -65%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $135 −$120 -89%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $43 −$42 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 15 $587 −$317 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 15 $301 −$101 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 15 $274 −$164 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 15 $243 −$243 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1,545 +$1,524 +99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $62 +$955 +1548%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +330%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $107 −$49 -46%
Burkina Faso leading at halftime? Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $60 −$16 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,240 +$3,150 +141%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 07 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Gainare Tottori win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $410 −$401 -98%
Will Tochigi City FC vs. Reilac Shiga end in a draw? Jun 06 $233 −$230 -99%
Exact Score: FC Gifu 2 - 3 Gainare Tottori? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -97%
RB Ōmiya Ardija leading at halftime? Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Singapore 0 - 3 China PR? Jun 05 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro end in a draw? Jun 05 $63 +$135 +213%
AC Nagano Parceiro leading at halftime? Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $110 +$871 +793%
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: Wales 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 02 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $77 +$270 +352%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 59m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 59m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $575 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $33 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $182 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.54 · official $84.54 (match) · 995 history records