Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62f8…f64f sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,921 (+25%) realized +$1,921 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$2,073
other 14% −$387
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +56.2% +41.3% 30% 26% +10.6%
≤30d 23 +56.2% +41.3% 30% 26% +10.6%
≤90d 23 +56.2% +41.3% 30% 26% +10.6%
all 23 +56.2% +41.3% 30% 26% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.3% 26% +10.6%
10% +27.8% 22% +0.0%
15% +15.4% 17% -9.6%
20% +4.1% 17% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +93% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$439 vs −$87 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,921
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $509 +$711 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $608 −$51 -8%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $508 +$131 +26%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 +$25 +49%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3,520 +$137 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$98 -48%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$189 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$88 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$99 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$5 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $204 −$76 -37%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $103 −$57 -56%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$1,794 +1745%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $18 41m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $639 52m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 59m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $407 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $539 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 15¢ $73 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $51 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $509 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $717 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $321 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $11 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $1,772 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $1 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $19 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $6 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $31 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $18 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $88 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $44 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $88 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $1 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $540 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $3,520 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $101 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records