Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
62 0x62f7…4862 crypto 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 704d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,737 (-13%) realized −$1,739 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%98W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$8
politics 35% −$1,761
other 0% +$5
economics 0% +$4
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% +$4
world 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 106 +4.2% -5.8% 92% 15% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 15% -21.6%
10% -14.8% 11% -29.1%
15% -23.0% 8% -35.9%
20% -30.6% 4% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$233 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

704d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$1,739
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses98 / 8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)106 / 111
History coverage704d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 84¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 70¢ 87¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 95¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 10? Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 8? Jun 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in May? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? May 15 $149 $0 +0%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? May 03 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? Apr 26 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 20 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 17 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $144 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 18? Mar 20 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 11 $152 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 7? Mar 08 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? Mar 05 $152 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 02 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 1? Mar 02 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 22 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 14 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 6? Feb 07 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3? Feb 05 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $140 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 30? Jan 30 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on January Jan 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 23? Jan 24 $144 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $4 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $4 4d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $116 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $118 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $114 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $4 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $149 45d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $142 56d
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 61d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $151 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $154 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $154 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $155 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $152 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $155 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $150 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $144 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $153 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $145 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $153 93d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 99¢ $5 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $154 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.77 · official $127.77 (match) · 231 history records