Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62f6…d966 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$75 (-3%) realized −$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$24
14 days−$44
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$363
sports 4% +$169
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -22.5% -29.9% 17% 17% -26.9%
≤30d 19 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 37% -2.3%
≤90d 71 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 44% -17.0%
all 71 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 44% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 44% -17.0%
10% -26.5% 44% -24.9%
15% -33.6% 39% -32.2%
20% -40.1% 38% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$30 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage60d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $52 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $22 +$81 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $42 +$52 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $46 +$44 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$65 +129%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $29 +$23 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 12 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 12 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 07 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 07 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 07 $52 +$83 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 06 $70 +$42 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 05 $73 +$67 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 05 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 05 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 02 $44 +$37 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 02 $46 +$25 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 02 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 28 $40 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 28 $40 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 28 $25 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 18 $28 +$24 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 8h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $54 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $22 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $51 17d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 55¢ $29 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.82 · official $66.82 (match) · 172 history records