Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x62f6…92d2 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$1
politics 23% −$1
other 23% $0
weather 8% $0
crypto 8% −$1
economics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 10 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage103d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 17 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 18 $69 −$1 -1%
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? Mar 18 $70 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $140 $0 -0%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? Mar 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 07 $71 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on March 6? Mar 07 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 89¢ $67 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 90¢ $68 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $67 22h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $68 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $68 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $68 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $68 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $68 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $69 64d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $69 64d
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? SELL Yes 96¢ $69 91d
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 91d
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $69 91d
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $70 91d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $70 91d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $70 91d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $70 92d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 92d
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $70 97d
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $70 97d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $70 101d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 102d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 99¢ $70 102d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of BUY Yes 99¢ $71 102d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on March 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 102d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on March 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records