Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62f6…faf7 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$4
other 26% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -10.3%
all 29 +0.1% -9.5% 34% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -10.1%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage450d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $65 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $34 −$4 -12%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on June 6? Jun 06 $11 $0 -3%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $2 $0 +14%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $27 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $23 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $31 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $31 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $23 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $18 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $16 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $18 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $34 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $27 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $4 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $14 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $17 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $31 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $31 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records