Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62f4…cf0f other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-15%) realized −$29 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$30
world 25% $0
crypto 15% −$30
sports 8% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.8% -3.4% 45% 36% -36.3%
≤30d 11 +6.8% -3.4% 45% 36% -36.3%
≤90d 11 +6.8% -3.4% 45% 36% -36.3%
all 11 +6.8% -3.4% 45% 36% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 36% -36.3%
10% -12.6% 36% -42.4%
15% -21.1% 36% -48.0%
20% -28.8% 36% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) Cabo Verde 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +273%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 1¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 31h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.29 · official $89.29 (match) · 20 history records