Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62f2…733c sports 177 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$338 (-16%) realized −$331 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%87W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day82.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$59
other 26% −$258
crypto 11% −$43
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 45% -24.4%
≤30d 172 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 45% -24.4%
≤90d 172 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 45% -24.4%
all 172 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 45% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 45% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 36% -31.7%
15% -33.8% 27% -38.3%
20% -40.3% 18% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$331
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses87 / 85
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)172 / 177
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day82.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 78¢ 82¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 65¢ 42¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Mentality Monster 68¢ 53¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-22%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Corners Over 67¢ 49¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$6 -42%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $26 +$7 +26%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $15 +$4 +24%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $56 −$14 -25%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 −$7 -26%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Al Qadsiah (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Sta Jun 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$3 -60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $15 +$5 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 −$6 -22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 −$2 -28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 −$4 -26%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$3 -27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$3 -62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$6 +20%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $5 −$3 -56%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $10 −$2 -23%
Rainbow Six Siege: One Coin vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League Stage Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +25%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $45 −$2 -4%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$6 +82%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 +$9 +30%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $49 −$43 -86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $9 −$6 -70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter BUY Mentality Monster 68¢ $7 0m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 44¢ $9 5m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $5 48m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $15 49m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $5 49m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $20 50m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 50m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As SELL Grind Back 99¢ $60 51m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 83¢ $50 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $10 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $15 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $16 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.94 · official $44.94 (match) · 478 history records