Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62ef…f1dc sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,487 (+13%) realized +$1,487 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%48W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,154
7 days−$1,217
14 days−$2,084
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$1,751
weather 32% −$923
crypto 13% −$457
other 7% −$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -51.4% -56.1% 24% 14% -45.2%
≤30d 133 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 30% -10.4%
≤90d 133 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 30% -10.4%
all 133 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 30% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 30% -10.4%
10% -23.8% 24% -19.0%
15% -31.2% 19% -26.8%
20% -37.9% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$45 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,487
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses48 / 85
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage28d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $108 −$56 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $393 −$393 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $43 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $301 −$80 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $318 +$9 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $474 −$80 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $109 +$74 +68%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $211 −$211 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 21 $429 −$318 -74%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $310 +$124 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $105 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 −$17 -94%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $106 −$3 -3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $53 +$7 +12%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $107 −$49 -46%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $270 +$128 +47%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $158 −$118 -75%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $106 +$227 +214%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $106 +$115 +109%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $208 +$264 +127%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$91 +172%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $266 −$62 -23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $128 +$98 +77%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $262 +$103 +39%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$5 -21%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $158 +$116 +73%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $67 +$27 +40%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $44 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $48 −$21 -43%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 28? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $390 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $85 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $216 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $55 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $327 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $318 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $393 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner SELL Team Falcons 50¢ $394 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $474 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $183 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $109 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 29¢ $21 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $310 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 46h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 84¢ $105 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $211 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 59¢ $106 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $102 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 23¢ $60 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records