Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
62 0x62ec…f173 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%13W / 56L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$14
politics 15% −$6
other 11% −$5
sports 1% +$31
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -2.5% -11.8% 19% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 59 -4.6% -13.7% 17% 12% -8.9%
all 69 -4.1% -13.2% 19% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 10% -9.5%
10% -21.5% 10% -18.2%
15% -29.1% 10% -26.1%
20% -36.0% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses13 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage574d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $116 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$6 +65%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $111 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $113 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 11 $25 $0 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $11 +$7 +62%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 24h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 24h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $18 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $7 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $23 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 18d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $23 24d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $23 24d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 24d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 24d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $62 28d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $116 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $116 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.58 · official $67.58 (match) · 246 history records