Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62e8…129a other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-4%) realized −$39 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate51%34W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$67
14 days+$77
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$38
finance 22% +$39
sports 15% −$150
tech 8% −$7
crypto 7% −$29
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -30.0% -36.7% 62% 31% -1.7%
≤30d 47 -12.8% -21.1% 62% 30% -7.2%
≤90d 67 -19.3% -27.0% 51% 27% -12.6%
all 67 -19.3% -27.0% 51% 27% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 27% -12.6%
10% -34.0% 15% -21.0%
15% -40.3% 10% -28.6%
20% -46.2% 7% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses34 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)67 / 83
History coverage57d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 28¢ $44 $14 −$30 (-69%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Epic Games have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Perplexity have the second highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Perplexity have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Canva have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Kraken have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Neuralink have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Databricks have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Anduril have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $140 +$7 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $90 +$14 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $85 +$10 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? Jun 18 $90 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$5 +10%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $23 −$14 -61%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Anthropic have the second highest private market valuation on Jun Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $71 +$15 +22%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $95 −$50 -53%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $50 +$3 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 10 $40 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 10 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 10 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $5 +$10 +198%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $2 $0 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $117 −$16 -14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +31%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? May 31 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $28 +$2 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 28 $5 +$2 +39%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $64 −$63 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 07 $14 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $109 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $140 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $6 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $90 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $85 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $90 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $49 7d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $37 7d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 7d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $32 8d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 9d
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 3 BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Perplexity have the second highest private market valuation on Ju BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on June 30 BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Perplexity have the third highest private market valuation on Jun BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Neuralink have the third highest private market valuation on June BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on June 30 BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Kraken have the third highest private market valuation on June 30 BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Epic Games have the third highest private market valuation on Jun BUY Yes $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.01 · official $16.03 (match) · 176 history records