Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62e2…2d81 crypto 1014 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$149 (+2%) realized +$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%453W / 560L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$125
14 days−$105
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 325 -18.3% -26.0% 44% 32% -14.1%
≤30d 693 -13.2% -21.5% 47% 34% -13.0%
≤90d 998 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 36% -9.0%
all 1013 -11.5% -20.0% 45% 36% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 36% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 29% -17.8%
15% -34.6% 23% -25.7%
20% -41.0% 19% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses453 / 560
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1013 / 1014
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1013 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 57¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.47 · official $7.47 (match) · 3500 history records