Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62e2…d2ec crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$275 (-68%) realized −$274 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$147
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$177
crypto 33% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -55.8% -60.0% 25% 25% -74.8%
≤30d 4 -55.8% -60.0% 25% 25% -74.8%
≤90d 38 -36.8% -42.8% 39% 29% -76.9%
all 38 -36.8% -42.8% 39% 29% -76.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.8% 29% -76.9%
10% -48.3% 24% -79.1%
15% -53.3% 13% -81.1%
20% -57.9% 13% -83.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$274
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage32d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $22 +$13 +57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $110 −$88 -80%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $7 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 21 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 21 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 21 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 21 $1 +$2 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 21 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $110 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $72 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 30d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.92 · official $33.92 (match) · 78 history records