Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x62e1…0c45 sports 8 markets active 10h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$81 (+96%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +80% what you keep after slip
Net edge+80%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$6
sports 36% +$46
world 12% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+87.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +106.9% +87.2% 71% 71% +95.1%
≤30d 7 +106.9% +87.2% 71% 71% +95.1%
≤90d 7 +106.9% +87.2% 71% 71% +95.1%
all 7 +106.9% +87.2% 71% 71% +95.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +87.2% 71% +95.1%
10% +69.2% 71% +76.5%
15% +52.9% 71% +59.4%
20% +37.9% 57% +43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +116% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +107% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.99 per $1 lost it wins $4.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$31 +307%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 +$21 +156%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 34h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 34h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $34 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $3 40h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.87 · official $14.87 (match) · 15 history records