Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x62e0…32df sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,336 (+27%) realized +$1,341 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,349
7 days+$1,813
14 days+$1,813
30 days+$1,334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$784
other 26% +$545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +47.1% +33.1% 50% 50% +40.9%
≤30d 22 +40.8% +27.4% 50% 50% +17.4%
≤90d 22 +40.8% +27.4% 50% 50% +17.4%
all 22 +40.8% +27.4% 50% 50% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.4% 50% +17.4%
10% +15.2% 50% +6.1%
15% +4.1% 50% -4.1%
20% -6.1% 50% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$192 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$1,341
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage20d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 28¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$243 +474%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $205 +$848 +414%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$232 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $254 +$294 +116%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $407 +$569 +140%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$74 +145%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$242 +237%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $107 +$93 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $170 −$168 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $300 +$495 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$198 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $761 −$748 -98%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 29 $493 +$269 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $205 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes $51 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $102 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $549 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $304 10h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $51 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $254 11h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 11h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 19¢ $102 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $407 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $306 34h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $125 37h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $204 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $51 41h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $170 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $107 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $300 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $202 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 42¢ $234 3d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $761 18d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 64¢ $493 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.97 · official $95.00 (match) · 37 history records