Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62df…1411 weather 491 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate86%423W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$12
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$10
finance 0% +$14
sports 0% −$19
other 0% +$7
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 59 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 346 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.5%
all 491 +4.8% -5.2% 86% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 13% -9.7%
10% -14.2% 8% -18.4%
15% -22.5% 6% -26.3%
20% -30.1% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses423 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)491 / 491
History coverage111d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 491 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26? Jun 26 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June Jun 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 09 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 7? Jun 07 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 5? Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 29? May 30 $139 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $60 27h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $60 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $58 41h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $20 42h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $20 42h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $20 42h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1993 history records