Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62de…5348 politics 7 markets active 15d ago coverage 124d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,583 (-5%) realized −$1,583 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,140per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3,915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$195
other 7% −$1,986
sports 2% −$472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -43.5% -48.9% 0% 0% -23.5%
≤90d 7 -39.2% -45.0% 29% 14% -12.1%
all 7 -39.2% -45.0% 29% 14% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.0% 14% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -50.3% 14% -20.5%
15% -55.1% 14% -28.2%
20% -59.5% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
17.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,312 vs −$977 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,583
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage124d
Avg bet$4,140
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,545 −$1,486 -96%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $7,763 −$675 -9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $7,999 −$1,754 -22%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 15 $5,550 +$385 +7%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? Apr 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Apr 13 $499 −$472 -95%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $5,122 +$2,239 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No $20 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No $19 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No $0 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $683 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $863 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $12 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $212 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $63 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $14 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $86 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $3 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $0 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $238 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $69 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $36 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $38 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $23 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $21 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $121 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $530 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $11 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $26 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $23 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $60 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $167 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $13 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $106 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $226 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $50 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records