Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62dc…a87c crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%69W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 43% -7.1%
≤30d 55 -4.8% -13.8% 51% 40% -8.7%
≤90d 93 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 43% -14.3%
all 124 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 48% -11.4%
10% -20.5% 31% -19.9%
15% -28.2% 18% -27.6%
20% -35.2% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses69 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage91d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 25 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 25 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 25 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 25 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 25 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 25 $16 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 25 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 25 $18 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 25 $39 −$25 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 25 $39 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 25 $39 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 25 $39 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 25 $38 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 25 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 25 $21 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 25 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 24 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 24 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 24 $21 −$16 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 24 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 24 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 24 $14 +$4 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $17 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $14 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $16 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records