Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62dc…4c6e other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%39W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$9
crypto 16% +$2
world 15% +$2
politics 9% +$4
sports 9% +$1
economics 6% +$1
finance 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 39 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses39 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage228d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 21 $138 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $271 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 02 $137 $0 +0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 28 $137 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 21 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 06 $134 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $135 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 07 $134 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $368 in March? Mar 26 $133 +$1 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Mar 19 $133 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $132 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 03 $260 +$3 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $140? Feb 18 $130 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $30? Feb 11 $129 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of January? Feb 02 $128 +$1 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $128 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 25 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 15? Jan 16 $126 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 January 5-11? Jan 14 $126 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 11 $125 +$1 +1%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Jan 02 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? Dec 26 $124 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? Dec 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 23 $58 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $114 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 3? Dec 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 07 $70 $0 +0%
US strikes Nigeria by November 30? Dec 03 $18 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 03 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Dec 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Nov 29 $71 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Nov 16 $120 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5? Nov 08 $119 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 31m
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $80 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $139 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $85 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $137 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $137 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $137 22d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $137 24d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $137 30d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $137 30d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $136 46d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $134 61d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 70d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $135 70d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $95 74d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 74d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 74d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 74d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 74d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 74d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $134 85d
Will Netflix reach $368 in March? SELL No 100¢ $77 86d
Will Netflix reach $368 in March? SELL No 100¢ $12 87d
Will Netflix reach $368 in March? SELL No 100¢ $16 87d
Will Netflix reach $368 in March? SELL No 100¢ $3 87d
Will Netflix reach $368 in March? SELL No 100¢ $14 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.47 · official $86.47 (match) · 118 history records