Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62da…326d other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$892 (-45%) realized −$844 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$138
14 days−$285
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$673
world 24% −$206
politics 21% +$99
sports 10% −$176
economics 4% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-77.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.4% -46.0% 0% 0% -63.5%
≤30d 22 -76.2% -78.5% 0% 0% -73.9%
≤90d 42 -75.5% -77.8% 2% 2% -60.2%
all 42 -75.5% -77.8% 2% 2% -60.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.8% 2% -60.2%
10% -79.9% 2% -64.0%
15% -81.9% 2% -67.5%
20% -83.7% 0% -70.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$26 · ×5.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$844
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 41
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage88d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 68¢ 50¢ $170 $124 −$46 (-27%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 27 $14 −$2 -17%
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 27 $16 −$5 -29%
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 27 $95 −$92 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $91 −$36 -39%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 26 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 20 $36 −$18 -49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $21 −$16 -76%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $61 −$29 -48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -94%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $15 −$13 -87%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$18 -70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 03 $28 −$26 -96%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $2 −$1 -95%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 30 $26 −$16 -64%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 50m Butterfly World Record Broken? May 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $7 −$2 -25%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $36 −$11 -31%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 18 $18 −$4 -21%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 18 $8 −$6 -67%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 09 $21 −$11 -53%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $80 −$66 -83%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $91 −$88 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 May 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 03 $89 −$89 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $111 −$16 -14%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $320 −$317 -99%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $364 +$139 +38%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? May 03 $6 −$6 -95%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? May 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $111 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $59 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 8h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 22h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag SELL No 6¢ $12 22h
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $2 24h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY No 9¢ $16 27h
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $13 28h
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $13 31h
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 9¢ $13 32h
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $38 33h
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $11 33h
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $6 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $56 33h
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 37h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 37h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $66 40h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $1 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.17 · official $124.17 (match) · 181 history records