Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62da…040a crypto 802 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 142d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,310 (-6%) realized −$1,310 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%364W / 438L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,621
7 days−$1,621
14 days−$1,621
30 days−$1,499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$1,350
other 22% −$306
tech 2% +$121
sports 2% −$284
world 2% +$308
weather 0% −$46
politics 0% −$12
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -47.9% -52.8% 21% 21% -72.2%
≤30d 21 -30.2% -36.8% 24% 24% -56.7%
≤90d 49 -28.9% -35.7% 31% 31% -35.4%
all 802 -9.0% -17.7% 45% 31% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 31% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 23% -24.3%
15% -32.7% 17% -31.6%
20% -39.3% 12% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses364 / 438
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)802 / 802
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 802 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $24 +$4 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $25 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $122 −$122 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 26 $57 −$21 -37%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 26 $1,059 −$1,059 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $405 +$183 +45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 03 $10 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 03 $10 $0 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 03 $10 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 03 $10 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 03 $10 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $202 +$53 +26%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $284 +$71 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $48 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 28 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $104 +$99 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait o May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? May 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? May 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs QUINTESSÊNCIA - Map 1 Winner May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 17 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 17 $566 −$566 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 17 $629 +$127 +20%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,008 +$165 +16%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $103 −$23 -23%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,109 +$375 +34%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 17 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 05 $418 −$291 -70%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs QUINTESSÊNCIA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A May 05 $101 −$45 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 05 $38 +$145 +381%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $99 +$71 +72%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Apr 02 $1 $0 +27%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Apr 02 $3 $0 -15%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Mar 21 $30 +$5 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $24 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 57¢ $25 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 22h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 37h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 37h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 45h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 88¢ $588 46h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $405 2d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $36 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $51 25d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 25d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 25d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 25d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 25d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $713 29d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $255 29d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $354 29d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 29d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $54 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $48 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records