Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62da…1e41 crypto 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+1%) realized +$74 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%46W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$39
14 days+$86
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$32
world 10% +$30
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +49.9% +35.6% 80% 60% +18.4%
≤30d 70 +2.3% -7.4% 66% 54% -9.3%
≤90d 70 +2.3% -7.4% 66% 54% -9.3%
all 70 +2.3% -7.4% 66% 54% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 54% -9.3%
10% -16.3% 47% -18.0%
15% -24.4% 34% -25.9%
20% -31.8% 30% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$45 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses46 / 24
Open positions8
Markets (closed)70 / 78
History coverage27d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 60¢ 84¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 70¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 94¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 52¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 16¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-95%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $15 +$29 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $90 +$4 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 15 $50 +$32 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 31 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 31 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 31 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 31 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $51 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 30 $51 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $103 −$49 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 29 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 29 $126 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 29 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $255 −$142 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 29 $378 −$375 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $376 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 29 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 29 $378 +$45 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $503 +$45 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 29 $359 +$199 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $25 2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $15 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $20 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 8d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $15 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $58 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $44 8d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $82 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $20 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $6 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.83 · official $108.61 (match) · 175 history records