Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
62 0x62d9…f45f crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,665 (+78%) realized +$2,637 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$292
7 days+$641
14 days+$641
30 days+$2,870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$292
politics 26% +$2,577
other 19% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +11.3% +0.7% 70% 61% +16.2%
≤30d 24 +28.8% +16.5% 71% 62% +84.1%
≤90d 24 +28.8% +16.5% 71% 62% +84.1%
all 24 +28.8% +16.5% 71% 62% +84.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 62% +84.1%
10% +5.4% 54% +66.4%
15% -4.8% 38% +50.4%
20% -14.1% 29% +35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +103% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +103% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$24 · ×7.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.15 per $1 lost it wins $18.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$647
Realized+$2,637
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage34d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $199 $201 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $60 $99 +$39 (+65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $60 $44 −$16 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $206 −$86 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $101 −$36 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $112 +$37 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $110 +$29 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $111 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $111 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $112 +$28 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $111 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $104 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $384 +$349 +91%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 03 $516 +$2,228 +432%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $63 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $56 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $112 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $120 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $103 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $18 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $646.76 · official $646.76 (match) · 82 history records